Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 May 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 141 Issued at 2200Z on 21 May 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 1072 (S16E14)
was numbered early in the period today and is a beta magnetic
configuration. No flares were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with one period of unsettled
conditions reported at 21/0300Z. Observations from the ACE
spacecraft show a gradual decline in solar wind velocity from around
460 km/s to 420 km/s through the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (22-24
May).
III. Event Probabilities 22 May-24 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 May 071
Predicted 22 May-24 May 072/072/074
90 Day Mean 21 May 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 May 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 May 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 May-24 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01