Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 May 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 May 21 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 141 Issued at 2200Z on 21 May 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1017 (N17W57) was
quiet. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The visible
disk remained spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (22-24
May).

III. Event Probabilities 22 May-24 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 May 072
Predicted 22 May-24 May 071/070/070
90 Day Mean 21 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 May 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 May 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 May-24 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01