Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 March 2012

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Mar 21 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was low. There were four C-class flares
with three of these originating from the newly emerging Region 1440
(S26W24). The largest was a C2 flare that occurred at 1252Z.
Region 1440 showed development throughout the day and appears to
have a small magnetic delta configuration in the trailing portion of
the group. There was a back-sided full halo CME from old Region
1429 that was observed in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 21/0736Z.
This CME is not expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with an slight chance for an isolated M-flare from Region 1440.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the
period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (22-24 March).

III. Event Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Mar 100
Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 095/090/090
90 Day Mean 21 Mar 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 007/007-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05