Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Mar 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Mar 21 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 080 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Unsettled conditions were observed between 21/09-15Z. ACE solar wind observations show a continued influence from the recurrent coronal hole. Velocities ranged between 379-455 km/s, and interplanetary Bz ranged from -9 nT and +11 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (22-24 March).

III. Event Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 21 Mar 070
• Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 21 Mar 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 006/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01