Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Mar 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Mar 21 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 080 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 862 (S07W39) produced five low level C-class flares; the largest of which was a C2.5 that occurred at 21/0944 UTC. Region 862 has shown little change in area over the last 24 hours and maintains a beta gamma magnetic configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare from Region 862.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Isolated active periods were due to continued effects of a coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 22 and 23 March. On 24 March, quiet to unsettled conditions with possible isolated active levels are expected as a coronal hole high speed stream moves into geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 21 Mar 077
• Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 21 Mar 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 014/022
• Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 012/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 008/008-005/008-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/20
• Minor storm 10/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/30
• Minor storm 10/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05