Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Mar 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Mar 21 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 576 (S07W91),
while transiting the west limb, produced the largest flare of the
day; a C6 flare at 21/0952Z. Region 578 (N15E34) continues to
exhibit slow growth and while maintaining a beta magnetic
configuration, shows evidence of mixing polarities. The majority of
the B-class and C-class activity observed today originated from
Region 578. Region 574 (S04E01) continues a slow decay but
maintains its beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 574 and 578 have C-class potential. A small
chance of isolated moderate activity is possible from Region 578.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
- Class M 10/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 21 Mar 111
- Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 110/110/115
- 90 Day Mean 21 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 007/009
- Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 008/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 008/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/15
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
