Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Mar 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
March 21, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Mar 21 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 576 (S07W91),
while transiting the west limb, produced the largest flare of the
day; a C6 flare at 21/0952Z. Region 578 (N15E34) continues to
exhibit slow growth and while maintaining a beta magnetic
configuration, shows evidence of mixing polarities. The majority of
the B-class and C-class activity observed today originated from
Region 578. Region 574 (S04E01) continues a slow decay but
maintains its beta-gamma magnetic configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 574 and 578 have C-class potential. A small
chance of isolated moderate activity is possible from Region 578.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

III. Event Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar

  • Class M 10/10/10
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 21 Mar 111
  • Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 110/110/115
  • 90 Day Mean 21 Mar 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 007/009
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 008/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 008/010-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/20
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.