Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Jun 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Jun 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
New Region 1022 (S27E15) was numbered during the period. The region
emerged on the disk as a 2-spot, bi-polar Bxo beta spot group. The
region has been quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels for the next three days (22 – 24 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A brief
period of sustained negative Bz, from about 20/2100Z to 21/0200Z,
resulted in unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed at all
latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (22 – 24 June).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jun 067
Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 21 Jun 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 008/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01