Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Jun 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jun 21 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be moderate to high.

III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 21 Jun 073
• Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 21 Jun 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01