Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Jun 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
June 21, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jun 21 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 635
(S12W14) produced the largest flare of the period, a C2/Sf flare at
21/1716Z. There was a slight decay seen in the sunspot area today.
The delta magnetic structure in the trailing portion of Region 635
remains intact. Region 634 (N12W31) also underwent slight decay in
sunspot coverage today although the region retains a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. Region 637 (N08E63) was
numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 635 remains capable of producing
M-class flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jun 116
Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 115/110/110
90 Day Mean 21 Jun 102

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 004/008-004/008-004/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.