Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 July 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jul 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. The four numbered sunspot regions remained stable and
quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels for the next three days (22-24 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft,
indicated speeds above nominal levels ranging from 400-520 km/s. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event observed at geosynchronous orbit
that began at 17/1715Z ended early in the period at 21/0310Z. Peak
flux levels observed with this event were 136 pfu at 18/0600Z. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
periods for the next three days (22-24 July) as a coronal hole high
speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 090
Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 090/095/100
90 Day Mean 21 Jul 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 008/010-011/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 30/35/35
Major-severe storm 35/35/35