Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 July 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jul 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today’s activity consisted
of numerous B-class events from Region 1087 (N18W85) and Region 1089
(S24E46). The largest events were a B8 at 1437Z from 1087 and a B8
at 1851Z From Region 1089. There has been a general increase in
background solar flux levels. Region 1089 grew steadily during the
past 24 hours and is a moderate sized D-type sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low,
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 1089.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. A solar sector boundary was observed
at the ACE spacecraft around 0200Z as the interplanetary magnetic
field transitioned from a negative (inward) orientation to a
positive (outward) orientation.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first day (22 July) and
predominantly unsettled for the second and third days (23-24 July).
The increase is expected as a response to a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 089
Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 21 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 007/007-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/20/20
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/25/25
Minor storm 05/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/05