Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Jul 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Jul 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. The solar disk continues to be void of sunspots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (22-24 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. A solar
sector boundary crossing from negative to positive was observed at
the ACE spacecraft around 0145Z; yesterday’s anticipated high speed
stream did not materialize as solar wind speeds held steady in the
range between 300-340 km/s. There was a possible second solar sector
boundary crossing back to negative polarity at about 1800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (22-24 July).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 068
Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 21 Jul 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01