Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Jul 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jul 21 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk is spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled. A single period of minor storming occurred between 21/0300Z and 0600Z due to a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE reached a peak of 573 km/s at 21/0340Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (22-24 July).

III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 21 Jul 066
• Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 068/068/068
• 90 Day Mean 21 Jul 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 009/012
• Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 010/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01