Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Jul 2006

By SpaceRef Editor
July 21, 2006
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Jul 2006
http://images.spaceref.com/news/sun.4.jpg

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity Issued: 2006 Jul 21 2200 UTC Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 900 (S06W52) produced two minor B-class flares during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next two days (22-23 July). Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are expected on 24 July, due to the arrival of the CME that occurred on 20 July.

III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 21 Jul 073
  • Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 075/075/075
  • 90 Day Mean 21 Jul 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 002/003
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 003/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 003/005-005/005-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 05/10/30
  • Minor storm 01/01/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/40
  • Minor storm 01/01/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

SpaceRef staff editor.