Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Isolated low-level C-class
flares were observed. Plage Region 1396 (N25W86) produced a C1 x-ray
flare at 20/2112Z associated with a Type II radio sweep (estimated
shock velocity 945 km/s) and a non-Earth-directed coronal mass
ejection (CME). Region 1402 (N29W11) produced a long-duration C1 at
20/2333Z associated with a weak Type IV radio sweep. Region 1402
showed gradual trailer spot decay during the period and was
classified as a Cko group with a beta magnetic configuration. Region
1401 (N17W14) also showed gradual trailer spot decay and was
classified as an Ehi group with a beta magnetic classification. New
Regions 1408 (N08E69) and 1409 (N16E50) were numbered. Both were
small and simply-structured.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (22 – 24 January) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels with brief active to
minor storm levels at high latitudes. A weak interplanetary shock
was observed at the ACE spacecraft at around 21/0400Z. This was
followed by a weak geomagnetic sudden impulse at 21/0502Z (7 nT,
Boulder USGS magnetometer).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels until late on day 1 (22
January). Activity is forecast to increase to unsettled to active
levels at around 22/1800Z and continue into day 2 (23 January) due
to the expected arrival of the halo-CME observed on 19 January.
There will also be a chance for minor storm levels during the CME
passage. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to
unsettled levels on day 3 (24 January) as CME effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jan 142
Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 21 Jan 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 009/010-020/025-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/40/10
Minor storm 10/20/01
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/50/20
Minor storm 20/25/10
Major-severe storm 05/10/01