Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 January 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jan 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1147 (N24W07) and new
Region 1149 (N18W05) produced several C-class flares during the
period. Region 1149 produced a C3 flare at 21/0417Z. This was the
largest flare observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 1149.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (22 January), due to a
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Activity should decrease to
quiet levels on days two and three (23 – 24 January) as the effects
of the CH HSS wane.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jan 088
Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 21 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01