Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 January 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jan 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1041 (S21E61) produced several C-class flares, the
largest being a C4 at 21/0120Z. Region 1041 also produced a long
duration B4 flare at 21/1733Z. Region 1041 has remained stable and
is classified as a Cao-beta with 7 spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels with a chance for M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels with
isolated active conditions at high latitudes. The effects of the
co-rotating interaction region have subsided and data from the ACE
spacecraft indicate we are currently in a coronal hole high-speed
stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels for the next three days (22-24
January).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jan 083
Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 084/085/085
90 Day Mean 21 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 006/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01