Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Jan 2006
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jan 22 0020 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2006
*******************Correction*******************
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 848 (S19W02) produced occasional B-class flares. Considerable new growth was observed in the intermediate sunspots in this region, and a weak delta configuration is now evident. No other activity of note was observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. The increased magnetic complexity in Region 848 will likely result in C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated unsettled periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 22 January. Occasional active periods are possible on 23 and 24 January as a coronal hole high speed stream rotates into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 21 Jan 094
- Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 095/095/090
- 90 Day Mean 21 Jan 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 004/006
- Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 005/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 005/005-010/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/25/40
- Minor storm 01/05/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/30/50
- Minor storm 05/10/15
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
