Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Jan 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
January 21, 2003
Filed under , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Jan 2003

SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Newly
assigned Region 269 (S09E76) produced the largest flare during the
period, an M1.9 x-ray event with associated loops occurred at
21/1526 UTC (no optical flare reported due to source center being
just beyond the east limb). Based on NASA/LASCO imagery, this event
produced a CME and it is doubtful that it will become geoeffective.
Unable to determine how mature this region is at the time of this
writing due to it’s proximity to the east limb. Region 260 (N14W00)
produced several C-class events throughout the interval and became
slightly more magnetically complex during the past 24 hours. A C8.1
flare (correlated using SOHO/EIT imagery) occurred at 21/0228 UTC
with an associated Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock
velocity of 700 km/sec. A C4.1/Sf event occurred at 21/0557 UTC
that had an associated Type II radio sweep (shock velocity estimated
at 700 km/sec) and a Tenflare. A 36 degree disappearing solar
filament was observed at the beginning of the period that produced a
CME which does not appear to be earth-directed. Region 268 (N12E23)
was also numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. There is a chance of further M-class flare activity
from region 269 pending further analysis as it rotates onto the
visible disk.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A lingering
southern coronal hole extension high speed stream is believed to be
responsible for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels for day one of the
forecast period. By day two a transequatorial recurrent high speed
stream coronal hole should become geoeffective producing active to
minor storm conditions with isolated major storm periods possible.

III. Event Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan

  • Class M 35/35/35
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 21 Jan 134
  • Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 135/140/135
  • 90 Day Mean 21 Jan 160

  • V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  • Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 012/017
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 010/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 010/015-020/020-020/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/40/40
  • Minor storm 05/25/20
  • Major-severe storm 01/10/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/45/45
  • Minor storm 10/30/30
  • Major-severe storm 05/15/15

SpaceRef staff editor.