Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 February 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Feb 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was low. There was one C-class flare
during the past 24 hours, a C1 at 21/1148Z from Region 1422
(N15W24). This region continues to be the largest group on the
disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. ACE data has
shown a steady decline in solar wind speed. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next 36 hours. An increase to
unsettled levels is expected mid-day on 23 February and continuing
through 24 February due to a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Feb 103
Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 21 Feb 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 014/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 006/005-007/008-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 01/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor storm 10/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/10/20