Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Feb 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Feb 21 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 942 (S11E05) has developed two trailer spots while retaining its beta magnetic configuration. No spots are currently visible in Region 943 (S12W23).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet through 24 February.

III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 21 Feb 075
• Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 21 Feb 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 001/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01