Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Feb 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
February 22, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Feb 21 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 735
(S09W71) was limited to minor B-class flares today. This region
underwent little change and retains the beta-gamma magnetic
classification. Region 736 (N13W63) showed an increase in penumbral
coverage over the past 24 hours and produced several minor B-class
flares. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Both Region 735 and 736 have the potential
of producing isolated C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. High latitudes may
experience isolated active conditions with the influence of a
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream beginning late on 23

III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb

  • Class M 10/10/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 21 Feb 095
  • Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 095/090/085
  • 90 Day Mean 21 Feb 100

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 006/012
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 005/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 007/010-007/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/20
  • Minor storm 01/01/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/25/25
  • Minor storm 05/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.