Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Feb 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
February 21, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Feb 21 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. New Region 564
(N14E42) produced a B6 flare at 1444Z. Other spot groups on the
disk produced little activity and are magnetically simple.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels with one period of
unsettled conditions observed at 1500Z. Greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible, due to a small and variable high speed

III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 21 Feb 098
  • Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 095/090/090
  • 90 Day Mean 21 Feb 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 002/004
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 006/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 010/012-010/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/25
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.