Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Dec 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Dec 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Isolated low-level C-class
flares and occasional B-class flares were observed. Region 1035
(N31W85) showed no significant change as it approached the west
limb. Region 1036 (S27W45) showed rapid growth and was classified as
a Dso/Beta at the end of the period. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Isolated C-class flare activity is expected. There is also a slight
chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels through the period (22 – 24
December).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
Class M 10/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Dec 083
Predicted 22 Dec-24 Dec 080/076/074
90 Day Mean 21 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec 001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01