Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Aug 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Aug 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The disk is spotless, and
no flares were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled due to the waning
effects of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for day 1 (August 22), and quiet
for days two and three (August 23, 24).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Aug 066
Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 21 Aug 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01