Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 21 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 969 (S06E73) was designated today as a simple, H-type sunspot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled 22 – 23 August and to abate to quiet 24 August.

III. Event Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 21 Aug 069
• Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 21 Aug 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 002/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 003/003
• Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 006/010-004/005-002/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/20/20
• Minor storm 10/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01