Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Aug 2002

By SpaceRef Editor
August 21, 2002
Filed under , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been high. Region 69 (S08W58)
produced an X1/1b event at 21/0534 UTC with an associated Type II
radio sweep. This region continues to produce the majority of
C-class and M-class events and maintains its beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 69 still posses the potential for an
isolated major flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm
conditions. The ACE satellite observed an extended period of
southward Bz in the solar wind from 20/2048-21/1247 UTC.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active levels are still
possible as a result of the solar activity from Region 69 over the
past several days.

III. Event Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Aug 220
Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 220/215/215
90 Day Mean 21 Aug 169

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 016/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 034/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 012/015-012/012-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.