Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Apr 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
April 21, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Apr 21 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Apr 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 596 (S07E19)
produced the only C-class events in the past 24 hours. The daily
consensus for this region has it as a magnetic beta-gamma
configuration, however, earlier in the period a small delta
configuration developed. A new region was numbered today as Region
598 (S05W30).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 596 is expected to continue producing C-class flares with a
chance for an isolated M-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 22 Apr-24 Apr

  • Class M 25/25/25
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 21 Apr 113
  • Predicted 22 Apr-24 Apr 115/120/120
  • 90 Day Mean 21 Apr 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 20 Apr 004/004
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Apr 006/006
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr 005/008-010/010-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Apr-24 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/20/20
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/25/25
  • Minor storm 05/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.