Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2006 Jun 30 2229 UTC

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jun 30 2229 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

*********Corrected Copy**********

SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. Active Regions 897 (N07E02) and 898 (S06E40) produced minor B-class flares. Both regions are in decay.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed is elevated due to a high speed coronal hole stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 01 and 02 July. Active to minor storm periods are expected on 03 July as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 30 Jun 086
• Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 30 Jun 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 008/012
• Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 010/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 005/008-005/005-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/40
• Minor storm 01/01/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/15/50
• Minor storm 05/01/25
• Major-severe storm 01/01/15