Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 September 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Sep 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A spot group complex consisting
of Regions 1295 (N23W35), 1296 (N27W16) and 1298 (N15W36) produced
several C-class events in the past 24 hours, including a C9/1f flare
at 20/0513Z. SOHO LASCO imagery observed 4 CME’s again this period,
none of which are expected to be geoeffective. Region 1295 remains a
beta gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (21-23 September). A chance for isolated
M-class flares exists from the Region 1295 complex.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated active period
from 20/0300-0600Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (21-23
September).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Sep 144
Predicted 21 Sep-23 Sep 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 20 Sep 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01