Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Sep 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Sep 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
and the solar disk continues to be void of sunspots. Solar x-ray
images and Stereo B EUVI continue to indicate an active region just
on or behind the east limb although so far there have not been any
reports of the group in ground-based H-alpha imagery.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. Background levels are expected to increase gradually as the new
region rotates onto the solar disk. There is a slight chance for
isolated B-class events during the next three days (21-23
September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (21-23 September).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Sep 071
Predicted 21 Sep-23 Sep 073/075/077
90 Day Mean 20 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01