Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Sep 2006

By SpaceRef Editor
September 20, 2006
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Sep 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Sep 20 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 910 (S09E24) contains the lone sunspot on the visible disk today. No activity of note was observed.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated unsettled conditions. Solar wind speed has declined to below 380 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 21 and 22 September. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into geoeffective position on 23 September and produce occasional active to minor storm periods.

III. Event Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 20 Sep 071
  • Predicted 21 Sep-23 Sep 070/070/070
  • 90 Day Mean 20 Sep 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep 008/012
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep 005/006
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep 005/005-005/005-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/10/40
  • Minor storm 01/01/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/50
  • Minor storm 01/01/20
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/10

SpaceRef staff editor.