Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Sep 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Sep 20 2204 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was low. There was a single C-class event, a C1.2 flare at 20/0844 UTC. Region 808 was in decay as it rotated around the west limb today. Region 810 (N10E37) developed in area to a size of 250 millionths. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
- Class M 10/10/10
- Class X 05/01/01
- Proton 05/01/01
- PCAF green
- IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 20 Sep 088
- Predicted 21 Sep-23 Sep 085/080/080
- 90 Day Mean 20 Sep 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep 008/008
- Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep 007/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep 010/012-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
