Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 October 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
Old Region 1318 (N19, L=097) rotated around the west limb yesterday
but produced an M1 flare at 20/0325Z. Regions 1314 (N29W69) and 1324
(N11E40) both produced C-class activity. All other regions on the
disk remained relatively quiet and stable. New Regions 1326
(N16W36), 1327 (S22E10), and 1328 (N18E23) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (21-23 October) with a chance for M-class
activity from Regions 1319 (N11W66) and 1324.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (21-23 October).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Oct 159
Predicted 21 Oct-23 Oct 160/160/155
90 Day Mean 20 Oct 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01