Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Oct 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 160 (S21W26)
produced two M-class events, the largest an M1.8/1b at 20/1428 UTC
with an associated Type II radio sweep (657 km/s).  Region 160 has
increased in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma configuration due
to mixing in the leading spots.  Region 162 (N26E46) continues to
grow in area coverage and spot count.  This region has produced two
M-class events, the largest an M1.8/Sf at 20/0045 UTC.  Region 162
maintains its beta-gamma magnetic configuration and polarity mixing
has been observed in the leading edge of the trailing spots.  Region
158 (S07W32) produced only minor flares and has simplified to a beta
magnetic configuration.  Two new regions were numbered today: 
Region 164 (N11E54) and Region 165 (N20E71).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 160 and Region 162 have M-class potential.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The high
speed stream continues but effects are minimal due to a consistently
northward Bz.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  There is a chance of isolated
active to minor storm conditions on day two and day three due to
effects from the M-class activity mentioned above.

III.  Event Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
Class M    50/45/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Oct 180
Predicted   21 Oct-23 Oct  180/175/175
90 Day Mean        20 Oct 181

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  010/010-010/015-012/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/30
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05