Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Nov 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 20 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A CME was observed, in LASCO imagery, off the east limb at 20/1830 UTC. This event is considered to be backsided and not expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with isolated C-flares possible from Region 923 (S06W88), until it rotates around the west limb on 21 November.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 21 and 22 November. On 23 November, quiet to active conditions are possible as a recurrent coronal hole high

III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov

• Class M 05/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 20 Nov 081
• Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 075/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 20 Nov 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 003/003
• Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 003/005-003/005-008/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/20
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/35
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05