Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Nov 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Nov 20 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was very low today. Region 704 (N12E51)
has shown slight growth in area. No new regions were numbered
today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active periods were due
to the effects of sustained periods of southward Bz. Solar wind
speed at ACE showed an increase from 450 km/s to 550 km/s at
approximately 1600 UTC.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov

• Class M 05/05/10
• Class X 01/01/05
• Proton 01/01/05
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 20 Nov 099
• Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 100/100/105
• 90 Day Mean 20 Nov 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 010/017
• Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 008/020-004/010-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/15/15
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05