Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Nov 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels.  Region
198 (S18E15) produced an impulsive M1/Sn flare at 20/1807 UTC. 
Magnetic complexity exhibits little change from yesterday and areal
spot coverage remained unchanged.  The trailing most spots are all
that remain visible in white-light from Region 191 (S18W81) as it
transits the west limb.  There was no flare activity recorded from
this region today although a rare spray feature was observed in the
H-alpha wavelength at 20/1938 UTC overlaying the region.  The
remaining regions were quiescent during the period.  Regions 199
(N27E13) and 200 (N00E71) were newly assigned today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels.  Region 198 has the potential to produce M-class
flares.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  NASA/ACE
depicted a modest increase in the solar wind speed beginning at
approximately 20/1000 UTC.  The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field made a sharp southward movement just prior to 20/1600
UTC which brought about the onset of active conditions at all
latitudes.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active conditions,
through the forecast period, as a favorably positioned high speed
stream coronal hole becomes geoeffective.  Isolated minor storm
conditions could occur during the high speed streams influence, 
especially at high latitudes.

III.  Event Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M    60/50/50
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Nov 159
Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov  155/150/150
90 Day Mean        20 Nov 174

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov  012/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  015/018-015/020-015/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/40
Minor storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/15/15