Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 May 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
May 20, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. The visible disk
remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled with one isolated
active period at 20/0300Z. Solar wind data from ACE indicated a
steady decay in velocity from 525 km/s to 475 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period
possible during day one (21 May). Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on days two and three (May 22-23) as the coronal hole high
speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 21 May-23 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 May 069
Predicted 21 May-23 May 070/072/072
90 Day Mean 20 May 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 May 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 May 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May 008/008-006/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May-23 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.