Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 May 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 May 20 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1017 (N17W44) has
decayed into spotless plage. No flares were observed during the last
24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (21-23 May).

III. Event Probabilities 21 May-23 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 May 072
Predicted 21 May-23 May 071/070/070
90 Day Mean 20 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 May 002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 May 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May-23 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01