Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 May 2007
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 May 20 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 956 (N04W18) produced a long-duration B6 flare at 20/0556Z, but no evidence of an associated CME has been observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains slightly elevated at approximately 540 km/s due to a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (21 – 23 May).
III. Event Probabilities 21 May-23 May
- Class M 10/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 20 May 074
- Predicted 21 May-23 May 075/075/075
- 90 Day Mean 20 May 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 19 May 010/012
- Estimated Afr/Ap 20 May 006/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May 008/012-005/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May-23 May
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/15/15
- Minor storm 05/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/25/15
- Minor storm 15/15/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01