Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 March 2012

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Mar 20 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 080 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was low. There was just one C-class
x-ray event during the period, a C3 from Region 1434 (S20W66) at
19/2204Z. The solar disk consists of six spotted regions, all of
which were relatively quiet and stable. Two new regions were
assigned today: Region 1438 (S15E69) and Region 1439 (N25W79).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is, however, a chance for an isolated C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet with a chance for some isolated
unsettled periods for the next three days (20-22 March).

III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
Class M 05/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Mar 100
Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 095/090/085
90 Day Mean 20 Mar 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 006/007-007/007-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/20/15
Major-severe storm 05/10/05