Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Mar 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Mar 20 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. No flare activity was reported during the period. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through 21 and 22 March. Isolated active periods are possible on 23 March due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Higher latitudes may experience brief periods of minor storm conditions with the onset of the anticipated coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 20 Mar 073
• Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 20 Mar 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 001/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 005/005-005/005-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/20
• Minor storm 01/01/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/25
• Minor storm 01/01/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05