Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Mar 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
March 20, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Mar 20 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels today. Old
Region 742 (S06 L=160) which rotated off the west solar limb 19
March produced the largest flare of the period, a C4 x-ray event
that occurred at 20/0159 UTC. Region 743 (S08W70) produced multiple
B and C-class flares during the period. The largest was a C2 x-ray
event that occurred at 20/1152 UTC. There was some decay in spot
area today and the beta-gamma magnetic structure weakened but
remains intact. Region 744 (S12E01) is a rapidly forming DSO beta
group and was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active periods may be possible at higher latitudes on 22 and 23
March, due to a potentially geoeffective coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar

  • Class M 10/10/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 20 Mar 089
  • Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 085/080/080
  • 90 Day Mean 20 Mar 098

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 009/014
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 004/006
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 004/008-004/012-006/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 01/01/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/02/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/25/30
  • Minor storm 05/05/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.