Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Mar 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
March 20, 2004
Filed under , ,

Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Mar 20 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 080 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 578 (N15E47)
produced a C1 flare at 20/2025Z along with eight B-class flares.
This region grew in area coverage and exhibits weak polarity mixing
but still maintains a beta magnetic configuration. Region 574
(S04E14) continues in a slow decay and has produce little activity.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels with a slight chance of isolated moderate
level activity. Region 578 has C-class flare potential and a small
chance of an isolated M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. One period of
isolated active conditions was observed at the Boulder magnetometer.
The Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated periods of
active conditions may occur on 21 March, particularly during local
night time hours.

III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar

  • Class M 15/10/10
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 20 Mar 114
  • Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 115/115/115
  • 90 Day Mean 20 Mar 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 005/006
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 008/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 010/015-008/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/15/15
  • Minor storm 10/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/25/20
  • Minor storm 15/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.