Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 June 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1504 (S16W77) produced
a C3 flare at 20/1628Z which was the largest event of the period.
There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next three days. There is a slight chance
for an isolated M-class flare from Region 1504 on day 1 (21 June) as
it approaches the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet on 21-23 June.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Class M 10/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jun 104
Predicted 21 Jun-23 Jun 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 20 Jun 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun 005/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05