Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Jun 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jun 20 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an M-flare from Region 779
(S17W58).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun

• Class M 10/10/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 20 Jun 086
• Predicted 21 Jun-23 Jun 085/085/080
• 90 Day Mean 20 Jun 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun 003/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun 006/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01