Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 July 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jul 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk. Region 1523 (S28W74) and Region 1525 (S20E09) are the largest
regions on the disk but both regions remained stable and quiet. New
Region 1526 (S17E63) was numbered earlier today and is currently a
simple beta group. A disappearing filament was observed in the
northwest quadrant of the Sun, however no CME’s were observed in
conjunction with the event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for C-class flares for the next three
days (21-23 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the
past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (21 July). Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day two (22 July), as a coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS) becomes geoeffective. An increase to
quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods is
expected on day three (23 July) as effects of the CH HSS continue.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 40/01/01
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jul 092
Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 090/090/095
90 Day Mean 20 Jul 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 006/005-008/010-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/30/30
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/30/35
Major-severe storm 05/35/35