Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 July 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jul 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was low due to a C1/Sf flare at 1345Z
from Region 1089 (S24E58). Region 1089 is a moderate-sized D-type
sunspot group with a beta magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for additional C-class events from
Region 1089.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled during the next three days (21-23
July). A gradual increase in activity is expected due to a favorably
positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jul 087
Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 20 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 005/007-007/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/20
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/20/25
Minor storm 01/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05