Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Jul 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
July 21, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Jul 20 2215 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk
remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activitiy is expected to be very

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. Solar wind
data indicate the onset of a high speed stream from a coronal hole,
beginning at about 19/2300. The solar wind speed was approximately
525 km/s with a slight upward trend at the time of issue.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated minor
storming on 21 July as the coronal hole high speed stream continues
to be geoeffective. Conditions should decrease to predominantly
unsettled on 22 and 23 July.

III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 20 Jul 072
  • Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 075/075/075
  • 90 Day Mean 20 Jul 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 008/010
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 018/020
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 020/025-010/015-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/20/20
  • Minor storm 20/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 10/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/30/25
  • Minor storm 25/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 15/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.